A longtime South Carolina political soothsayer predicts that Gov. Mark Sanford will not survive his re-election bid. Francis Marion University political scientist Veal Pigthin said today that Sanford has almost no chance of winning re-election in November.

“I’ve studied the numbers, and I just don’t see how it’s possible,” said Pigthin, a GOP activist and personal friend of conservative newspaper columnists Lee Bandy and Dan Hoover.

“Here’s his problem,” said Pigthin. “In the Republican primary election, he only beat his opponent by a two-to-one margin.  That’s a very poor showing for an incumbent.”

“What’s more,” said Pigthin, “Sanford actively supported a few GOP primary challengers to sitting legislators who stood in the way of his agenda.  Only one of the targeted lawmakers lost, and one of them won with nearly 55% of the vote.”

“But,” said Pigthin, “that’s not the worst news for Sanford. Look at the raw vote count. He got only 21-thousand more votes than the three Democratic candidates combined, and only 82% more votes than Tommy Moore, who he will meet in the general election.  If you add all of the votes for Sanford’s Republican primary opponent to all of the votes for all three Democratic candidates, Sanford is toast.”

Pigthin is known in political circles as the “go to guy” for “no spin” analysis of Republican fortunes. He predicted that Sen. John McCain would defeat Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the 2000 GOP primary, that Congressman Jim DeMint would lose his U.S. Senate bid to Democrat Inez Tenenbaum in 2004 and more recently, that Bob Staton would win the five-way GOP race for Education Superintendent without the need for a runoff.

Pigthin admits that not all of his predictions have been on the mark, but he says that’s another problem for Sanford.  “According to the law of averages,” Pigthin declared, “I’m due to get one right.”